Two teams are on the doorstep of the UAAP Finals. Two other teams face a longer route to the title series. Pressure, however, is always on the top 2 teams. The twice-to-beat advantage is more of a logistical advantage than a psychological one. It only means Ateneo and FEU can enter the finals after just one game. If they lose this weekend, the twice-to-beat advantage swiftly becomes an emotional burden. In possible rubber matches, UE and UST can play pressure-free while Ateneo and FEU face the horror of monumental disappointment.
Ateneo Blue Eagles (1) vs. UST Growling Tigers (4)
Ateneo (13-1)
Plus: Multiple Weapons, Championship Experience, Championship Defense
Ateneo isn’t a one-man team. This is Ateneo’s biggest strength. Even when they play sub-par games, they still win. Even when Rabeh Al-Hussaini gets into foul trouble, they still win. Apart from the ability of other players to contribute, Ateneo wins because of championship experience and championship defense.
Minus: Notorious for Slow Starts
Norman Black shakes his head every time Ateneo starts slow. It’s not because his offense has to make-up for it in the second half. It’s because a slow start places so much pressure on his defense to keep Ateneo in the game. It’s a good thing Ateneo is a fourth quarter team.
Man of the Moment: Nonoy Baclao
Ateneo can lose anyone on the team except Nonoy Baclao. Baclao is the heart and soul of Ateneo’s defense, and consequently, the Eagles’ title drive. What Dick Butkus is to the Chicago Bears and Ronnie Lott is to the San Francisco 49ers, Baclao is to the Eagles (just google Butkus and Lott and you’ll know what I mean). Even with a broken hand, Baclao conducts Ateneo’s defense like a maestro.
UST (6-8)
Plus: Nothing to Lose, Fighting Spirit, Explosive Offense
Of the four teams playing this weekend, UST has the least to lose and the most to gain. Hurled by NU into the Final Four, the Tigers have no momentum whatsoever heading into their Sunday showdown with Ateneo. Yet, UST isn’t bothered by their less than stylish entry into the semis. This is a team that will wrestle for every possession and fight for every point.
Minus: Smaller frontline, 2-man team
It’s the frontline disparity that makes UST underdogs against Ateneo. The Tigers have players who can match-up with everyone on the Ateneo line-up except Al-Hussaini. Nico Salva’s suspension significantly helps UST’s cause. Unlike Ateneo, however, UST can’t afford to have its two stars - Dylan Ababou and Khasim Mirza - sleepwalk in the semis. If they neutralize Al-Hussaini, UST’s key players connect and Ateneo displays another lethargic start, UST’s explosive offense can make the game interesting.
Man of the Moment: Dylan Ababou
Sunday’s game will be Ababou’s chance to validate his claim to the MVP title. Of course, his accomplishment in 14 games is more than enough proof. Still, a superlative performance in the Final Four would give Ababou a proper stage for his MVP coronation.
FEU Tamaraws (2) vs. UE Red Warriors (3)
FEU (11-3)
Plus: Size, Athleticism, Poise
FEU’s frontline is just as imposing as Ateneo’s. As such, it will enjoy a size advantage over the Warriors. Provided the Tamaraws maximize that advantage, they can neutralize UE’s athleticism. FEU, after all, is just as athletic. Glen Capacio also hopes the Tamaraws play with a lot of composure.
Minus: Tendency to play at opponents’ pace, Distracted by new developments
In FEU’s second round losses to UE and Ateneo, the Tamaraws may have succumbed into their opponents’ pace. The last thing FEU wants to do on Saturday is engage the Warriors in a Don Nelson-style shootout and risk turning the game into a Paul Lee spectacle. FEU is better off imposing its own brand of play than toying with UE’s unpredictability. Furthermore, whispers of yet another game-fixing witchhunt among Tamaraws threaten to distract FEU during Saturday’s big game.
Man of the Moment: Mark Barroca
I’m still waiting for that one eye-popping performance from Mark Barroca. Barroca has been content watching guys like Aldrech Ramos and RR Garcia make the critical baskets. Either that or he’s just not a focal point in the FEU offense. Perhaps Barroca’s just waiting for the Final Four to unleash the kind of game that made him the point guard to watch in Season 72. If by some chance Barroca doesn’t suit up or figuratively show up on Saturday, then the reported witchhunt may have hit him head-on.
UE (10-4)
Plus: Momentum of Second Round, Run and Gun
Powered by a 6-game winning run, UE enters the Final Four somewhat relieved that they are underdogs instead of favorites. Historically speaking, the Warriors don’t handle twice-to-beat bonuses well. In many respects, UE is in a situation that suits them just right – run and gun underdogs with more momentum than pressure.
Minus: The Pitfalls of a Freewheeling System
While freelancing can be so much fun, too much spontaneity can lead to erratic plays and misguided decisions on the hardcourt. Hence, even if UE builds a comfortable lead, opponents always have a chance of bouncing back. Often, the Warriors rely on their superior athleticism to stay in games. But hey, they’ve break-danced their way to a 6-game winning streak and a spot in the Final Four so no one’s complaining.
Men of the Moment: Pari Llagas and Elmer Espiritu
Pari Llagas and Elmer Espiritu are sometimes overpowered but never outworked. If Lee injects nitro into UE’s offense, Llagas and Espiritu provide horsepower for the Warriors’ running game. They defend. They rebound. They push. They grind. They create possessions. How they handle a taller FEU frontline could determine UE’s fate in the Final Four. MH
