After almost 3 months of intense play, the two-round elimination tournament of the UAAP has ended. Only four teams remain, each chasing the elusive goal of winning this year’s UAAP men’s championship. Ateneo, ranked number one; FEU, number 2; the UE Red Warriors, at the 3rd slot, and UST, 4th. With the final four set up, Ateneo will play UST with the Eagles having a twice to beat advantage. While 2nd seed FEU, with the same twice-to-beat advantage takes on the UE Warriors.

Except for the absence of De La Salle, these four teams were tipped from the very beginning to make it to the final four. Even before the season, I would tell friends that no matter what happens, it will be an Ateneo-FEU showdown, no assurances on who will win the title, though. So let’s dissect the final four match ups that we will be eagerly watching.

Ateneo de Manila (ranked # 1) versus University of Sto. Thomas (ranked # 4)

Ateneo has dominated the elimination, dropping only a single game to lowly UP. They’ve shown how championship savvy they are in several key games and against teams that made it to this year’s Final Four. Coach Norman and his boys came into this season with a lot of expectations, namely to win back-to-back to championships. So far, they haven’t disappointed. While they sit at the top of the standings, the Katipunan-based cagers cannot relax. The Final Four is a whole new ball game.

Out to upset them are the fourth seeded UST Tigers, a team who piled up enough wins and benefited from La Salle’s collapse to make it to this years Final Four. Team leader, Dylan Ababou will be named this year’s MVP and rightfully so: He has dominated the league in a consistent fashion. Whether Ababou can carry this team to back-to-back wins versus the more balanced and deep Eagles remain a big question mark.

Key Points: It will be Ateneo’s depth in talent versus Ababou and company. Although Mirza, Fortuna, Camus and rookie sensation Jeric Teng have shown flashes of brilliance in this years tournament, the Tigers shallow bench have proven to be their cheek in their armor. While the Ateneo team is 11 to 12 man deep, capped of by steady team play and a championship experience to go with it.

Despite all this, UST will have a clear advantage on the wing positions. Boy where do they recruit theses long armed, lanky, long legged wing players who can shoot the ball from the parking lot? Ateneo’s wing players will be hard pressed on stopping Mirza and Ababou.

However, Ateneo cannot be stopped in the paint. The Blue Eagles have way too much muscle compared to UST. Expect a field day from last year’s MVP Rabeh Al Hussaini. I’m sure he has an axe to grind after knowing that Dylan Ababou will win the MVP award. It is really like stealing candy from the big boy; I expect him to make his case during this game. Not to be forgotten, Nonoy Baclao has consistently made his presence felt.

As with guard play, advantage goes to the Blue Eagles. Ateneo’s guards are veterans in this level. They know their roles in this team. Jai Reyes has quarterbacked this team to its number one finish while Eric Salamat, I feel, is the real heart and soul of Ateneo’s offensive attack. Jeric Fortuna will have his normal steady game and numbers but it will take more than that for him to outplay his counter parts. He needs to step it up two levels higher in order for UST to have a chance.

Interesting Sidelight: Remember the last time UST won the championship? Well I remember that one since that was won at the expense of graduating seniors like myself. In that year, nobody expected UST to win. All of a sudden, they went bursting out of the scene and yanked up wins, eventually winning the championship against my team. Ateneo simply cannot relax versus this team. If there is any team that can pull out a Cinderella surprise it is UST. Pido Jarencio, the master motivator that he is will pull out all his anecdotes which he learned from playing for “Jawo” in his hey days.

Fearless Forecast: Ateneo will win it on Saturday versus UST and march on the Championship game. However, it will not be smooth sailing as UST will give them one hell of a game. There will be a lot of anxious moments for Ateneo but they will have enough coaching savvy, team play and talent to out last UST. Expect a 20 plus point and 10 plus rebounds from Dylan Ababou while Rabeh will make his case with similar numbers.

Far Eastern University (ranked # 2) versus University of The East (ranked # 3)

Analysis: I remember talking with FEU athletic director Mark Molina three years ago and I remember his being upbeat about his batch of recruits for that year. He mentioned having the right pool of talents for a team that would make a championship run for when FEU would become the host of the UAAP season. And now, the time has come.

They now boast of Smart Gilas national players’ Cawaling, Barroca and Ramos. Far Eastern University is indeed poised to make its championship run. It seems to have the right mix of players and the right system to go with it. However, out to play the spoiler’s role is the very dangerous University of The East.

The Warriors are probably the hottest team going into the Final Four as they are riding on a winning streak and a convincing domination of FEU in the second round of play. Everyone knows of Far Eastern University’s depth and championship caliber team but what makes this match up interesting is the fact that experts and aficionados are pointing to the Warriors as potential “kryptonites” to this mighty Tamaraws team. No wonder, FEU battled real hard versus Ateneo last Saturday in order to avoid UE by instead getting the first slot. However, their efforts were not enough as Ateneo handed them their defeat and eventually falling to the second spot in this Final Four phase.

The troika of Lee, Llagas and Espiritu armed with their athleticism and deadly offensive game are poised to repeat their win over the Tamaraws. These three seem to be the perfect antidotes to the Far Eastern attack. However, what is going for FEU is their twice to beat advantage. No matter what people say, UE needs to win back-to-back games versus a team that hasn’t lost back-to-back games this season.

Keypoints: FEU must win the first game. If the Tamaraws do not win on Saturday then I am betting on UE upsetting FEU. The Warriors are a “go go go” team with a lot of confidence heading to this Final Four. The key for Far Eastern is to crush UE’s confidence early on, they can not give UE the chance to believe that they can win. They aren’t called Warriors for any reason. Paul Lee and company can smell blood and when they do, expect them to go for the kill. Critics of the Warriors say that they aren’t deep enough to win it all but I feel that they just have enough to pull a surprise against FEU.

What To Watch Out For: Acuna, a very explosive first year man for UE needs to have a solid game come Saturday. I have been impressed by the offensive and defensive capabilities of this guy all season long but he needs more come Saturday for his team to string up a surprise.

On the other side, FEU needs more from JR Cawaling. The guy is too talented and skilled to just be coasting along. Barroca, Cervantes, Garcia and Ramos have been stringing up impressive numbers but what seems to be the missing link is Cawaling. Yes, he is good but he needs to be in his best to help his team avoid a potential upset.

Battle of Styles: What makes this game even more interesting is the difference on playing styles of both teams. It is FEU’s discipline play versus UE’s run and gun style. At times UE Warrior’s would play like headless chickens just running and gunning. Focal to their attack is Paul Lee. While FEU wins because they dictate the tempo of the game through their discipline in both the offensive and defensive end; It would be very interesting to see which style would prevail come Saturday.

Fearless Forecast: UE brings in a great deal of unpredictability. This seems to be their advantage going into the game. However, Far Eastern University is a more balanced and complete team, which strives on a system, which the players follow to the hill. I still predict an FEU win come Saturday. However, if FEU loses, then I have to say it will be UE marching on the finals, upsetting FEU.

Let the games begin and let Final Four madness take over! See you all Saturday!